Analysts say that without Iran and Iraq — where nearly 30 years of wars and sanctions have crippled oil production — reaching that level will be impossible.

This is why we are not going to leave Iraq.  The country that controls the future of Iraq and Iran, controls the world for the next 40 or so years.

The issue is not that Iraq and Iran might not be pumping oil in 2030.  One way or another, they will.  The issue is: which military power gets to hold the world at gunpoint in this final fossil-fuel thrill-ride to the edge?  Unless, that is, anyone thinks that the major military powers are going to let Iraq and Iran themselves hold that petrochemical pistol?

According to the New York Times article, world supply of oil is not increasing as it should, in accordance to standard laws of supply and demand, as prices rise to 118 dollars a barrel.  The reason is that supply is simply not available.  OPEC is building infrastructure to keep up, but it's not enough.  OPEC controls 40% of the world output.  The other 60% is not keeping pace, due to both dwindling fields and lack of pumping infrastructure.

An analyst describes non-OPEC supply as "dead in the water."

Anyway, there's more. Compelling stuff.